Model-based energy planning: a methodology to choose and combine models to support policy decisions

D. Santos Oliveira, S. Lumbreras, E. F. Álvarez, A. Ramos, L. Olmos

International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems Vol. 159, pp. 110048-1 - 110048-22

Summary:

Long-term energy planning is becoming increasingly reliant on mathematical models, which offer quantitative insight to support complex policy decisions. However, the increase in their use has meant the proliferation of tools developed at different institutions, with have a variety of scopes, dealing with specific aspects of the economy, the power sector, or the climate, with mismatches in temporal or geographic resolution. All this creates a need for using several models concurrently, integrating them to generate a complete perspective on the entire implications of policy decisions on the energy transition. This article proposes a methodology to categorize and combine energy models and develop a manipulation strategy to answer a target research question. Thus, it gives a formal structure to tasks that are being carried out informally -and suboptimally- in virtually any energy planning project. This methodology is based on structured modeling, a formal mathematical theory that was conceived for representing and manipulating models. It assumes a soft-linking approach, which means that the models share information without a need to integrate them within the same platform or code. This framework was developed within the European project openENTRANCE, which will develop, use, and disseminate an open, transparent, and integrated modeling platform for assessing low-carbon transition pathways in Europe.

Spanish layman's summary:

Este artículo propone una metodología para categorizar y combinar modelos energéticos y desarrollar una estrategia de manipulación para responder a una pregunta de investigación objetivo. Así, da una estructura formal a tareas que se están llevando a cabo de manera informal -y subóptima- en prácticamente cualquier proyecto de planificación energética. Esta metodología se basa en modelos estructurados.

English layman's summary:

This article proposes a methodology to categorize and combine energy models and develop a manipulation strategy to answer a target research question. Thus, it gives a formal structure to tasks that are being carried out informally -and suboptimally- in virtually any energy planning project. This methodology is based on structured modeling.

Keywords: Energy Models, Soft-linking, Energy Planning;

JCR Impact Factor and WoS quartile: 5,200 - Q1 (2022)

DOI reference: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2024.110048

Published on paper: August 2024.

Published on-line: May 2024.

Citation:
D. Santos Oliveira, S. Lumbreras, E. F. Álvarez, A. Ramos, L. Olmos, Model-based energy planning: a methodology to choose and combine models to support policy decisions. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems. Vol. 159, pp. 110048-1 - 110048-22, August 2024. [Online: May 2024]